Pre-tourney Rankings
West Coast
2018-19


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Gonzaga 100.0%   1   30 - 3 16 - 0 30 - 3 16 - 0 +23.7      +14.6 1 +9.1 13 75.2 45 +20.9 5 +23.4 1
35 St. Mary's 100.0%   11   22 - 11 11 - 5 22 - 11 11 - 5 +11.4      +6.6 28 +4.8 56 60.0 347 +8.5 59 +9.4 3
81 San Francisco 0.0%   20 - 10 9 - 7 20 - 10 9 - 7 +6.0      +5.0 50 +1.0 144 66.4 238 +5.5 96 +5.6 4
95 BYU 0.1%   19 - 13 11 - 5 19 - 13 11 - 5 +5.3      +5.2 45 +0.1 167 76.8 31 +5.9 89 +10.4 2
96 San Diego 0.0%   20 - 14 7 - 9 20 - 14 7 - 9 +5.2      +1.2 141 +4.0 72 66.9 228 +5.3 101 +2.2 7
137 Loyola Marymount 0.0%   18 - 11 8 - 8 18 - 11 8 - 8 +2.2      0.0 172 +2.2 116 60.2 346 +4.1 115 +3.1 6
154 Pepperdine 0.0%   15 - 18 6 - 10 15 - 18 6 - 10 +0.9      +1.8 123 -1.0 196 74.6 57 -1.1 182 -1.0 8
180 Santa Clara 0.0%   15 - 15 8 - 8 15 - 15 8 - 8 -1.1      -1.6 220 +0.5 153 66.1 249 +0.4 168 +4.0 5
198 Pacific 0.0%   12 - 18 4 - 12 12 - 18 4 - 12 -2.3      -3.0 258 +0.6 149 64.1 303 -1.9 192 -4.2 9
319 Portland 0.0%   5 - 25 0 - 16 5 - 25 0 - 16 -10.5      -6.8 326 -3.7 269 67.4 218 -11.5 327 -16.4 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Gonzaga 1.0 100.0
St. Mary's 2.0 100.0
San Francisco 4.0 100.0
BYU 2.0 100.0
San Diego 7.0 100.0
Loyola Marymount 5.0 100.0
Pepperdine 8.0 100.0
Santa Clara 5.0 100.0
Pacific 9.0 100.0
Portland 10.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Gonzaga 16 - 0 100.0
St. Mary's 11 - 5 100.0
San Francisco 9 - 7 100.0
BYU 11 - 5 100.0
San Diego 7 - 9 100.0
Loyola Marymount 8 - 8 100.0
Pepperdine 6 - 10 100.0
Santa Clara 8 - 8 100.0
Pacific 4 - 12 100.0
Portland 0 - 16 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga 100.0% 100.0
St. Mary's
San Francisco
BYU
San Diego
Loyola Marymount
Pepperdine
Santa Clara
Pacific
Portland


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 1   48.3 39.1 10.9 1.7 0.0 100.0%
St. Mary's 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 11   0.1 3.5 9.1 30.3 43.6 13.3 0.0
San Francisco 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
BYU 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.1%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Santa Clara 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Gonzaga 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.9% 86.9% 68.7% 47.5% 31.4% 19.7%
St. Mary's 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 41.2% 11.5% 3.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
San Francisco 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
BYU 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Santa Clara 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 2.0 100.0 0.0
2nd Round 99.3% 1.4 0.7 58.5 40.8 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 88.8% 1.0 11.2 79.2 9.6
Elite Eight 69.8% 0.7 30.2 67.8 2.0
Final Four 48.0% 0.5 52.0 47.7 0.3
Final Game 31.5% 0.3 68.5 31.5 0.1
Champion 19.7% 0.2 80.3 19.7